作为一名研究人员，我有时会对我的调查结果感到震惊。

In the course of revising a new paper on experience and belief in the supernatural (co-authored withMichiel van Elk我收到一些评论，建议我们参考一本关于巫术“信仰”和津巴布韦艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行的书。

The referred-to book was Alexander Rödlach’sWitches, Westerners, and HIV: AIDS and Cultures of Blame in Africa．这本书出版于2006年。But its insights about rumor, suspicion, and misinformation are relevant today—not just for understanding Zimbabwe, where1.4 millionpeople still live with HIV, but also for understanding any epistemic environment, such as our own, that is becoming increasingly riddled with misinformation.

In the early 2000s, when Rödlach was doing his ethnographic research, contracting HIV in Zimbabwe was a death sentence. With the vast majority of HIV carriers having no access to appropriate medications, full-blown AIDS was inevitable. I’ll spare present readers the gruesome details about conditions under which poor Zimbabweans died from AIDS. But those wishing to know more should read Rödlach’s book.

Why did our commentator think that book was relevant to a paper about experience and supernatural belief?

In short, “beliefs” about AIDS in Zimbabwe—you’ll see in a moment why I use scare quotes—make for a powerful case study in how dire life circumstances can contribute to an environment of misinformation.

There basically are two ways that people explain (or try to explain) AIDS symptoms in Zimbabwe.

The first is the familiar one: AIDS follows from HIV, which is a virus that is spread predominantly through unprotected sex. Sexual promiscuity and intercourse with sex workers (an estimated 50-70% of whom in Zimbabwe are carriers) often lead to infection.

The second manner of explanation is roughly the following: the symptoms typically associated with AIDS (or even AIDS itself) are the product of sorcery—where sorcery means supernatural practices that almost anyone can use to inflict harm on another.

Rödlach had a hard time extracting the details of mooted sorcery practices from his informants, since seeming to know about sorcery might lead one to be accused of being a sorcerer. But two elements stood out. First, a sorcerer or witch might have anundofa, a humanoid spirit creature that lives in shadows and inflicts harm on people at his master’s or mistress’s command. A witch might send anundofa把疾病传染给她憎恨的人。第二，可以使用各种魔法毒药造成伤害。

相关的问题是:为什么有人会相信这些奇怪的事情，当一个完美和全面的科学解释艾滋病毒/艾滋病是可用的?

The first thing to note is that in many cases, “belief” is not exactly the right word. A more common word in Rödlach’s book is “suspicion.” Most Zimbabweans are well familiar with medical explanations of HIV/AIDS. Yet pervasively, usually without feeling sure that sorcery is to blame, the presence of the sorcery cultural narrative leads people tosuspectmagical foul play. Of course, one might use the word “belief”loosely将这种怀疑包括在内，但这样的用法将合并两种实际上截然不同的认知态度:普通的事实信念和模糊的怀疑。

Suspicion is dangerous. It has a low epistemic bar—one doesn’t need much or even any evidence to form a suspicion. Yet suspicions can be practically debilitating: they lead to behaviors that gobble up resources and get in the way of other behaviors that would be helpful. Suspicions stultify. Just suspecting that AIDS comes from sorcery lowers enthusiasm for proper means of prevention, like testing, condom distribution, and abstaining or practicing safe sex.

The fact that ideas about AIDS and sorcery mostly operate at the level of suspicion makes them spread easily. Another reason they spread is that these suspicions can be used for strategic social purposes. Accusations of sorcery have damaging effects on people’s lives, ruining reputations and making them increasingly shunned. So the possibility that someone might accuse another person of sorcery can pressure that person into, say, giving money to the potential accuser. All the accuser has to do is create a suspicion and the damage is done. In a healthier epistemic environment, such sorcery accusations would be laughed at, but in Zimbabwe they are terrifying.

Finally—for purposes of this blog—Rödlach found that people were more likely to take the idea of sorcery seriouslyonce they had full-blown AIDS themselves．这一事实背后的心理因素是模糊的。但有两个因素似乎是相关的。首先，指责巫师是不承认自己性行为不当的一种方式;艾滋病是耻辱的来源，因此坚持掩盖疾病本质的想法是避免耻辱的一种方式。第二，由于艾滋病是不可避免的死刑判决(鉴于津巴布韦普遍缺乏药物)，承认医学事实意味着承认人们基本上无能为力。它意味着放弃对自己命运的掌控。On the other hand, if one clings to the idea that sorcery is the cause of illness, then it seems that one still hassomecontrol. Unlike medical inevitabilities, sorcery can be combatted. So the sheerdesperationof late-stage AIDS leads people to cling to ideas of sorcery.

What general lessons are there in all this? Extrapolating from Zimbabwe to other contexts is speculative. Nevertheless, I think Rödlach’s book is fascinating because he’s highlighting extreme examples of epistemic weaknesses that occur in less pronounced ways around the world. The lessons are these. Suspicion is an easy way to degrade a society’s informational environment, and once unleashed, it takes on a life of its own. Next, a culture of widespread suspicion facilitates social manipulation through the spreading of more misinformation: this becomes a vicious feedback loop. And last, personal, bodily desperation makes people increasingly susceptible to false narratives. Zimbabwe is still trying to recover.